#1 Baylor Bears vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview for NCAA Basketball Game

#1 Baylor Bears vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Game Information

#1 Baylor Bears vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Date: 4/5/21

Time: 9:20 p.m. ET

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

TV Coverage: CBS

#1 Baylor Bears vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: (Open: Baylor +178 / Gonzaga -215) (Current: Baylor +176 / Gonzaga -210)

Spread: (Open: Gonzaga -5) (Current: Gonzaga -4.5)

Total: (Open: 160) (Current: 159.5)

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#1 Baylor Bears vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs News and Notes

Neither team reports any injuries for the championship game.

Notable Trends

  • Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Gonzaga is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
  • The total is 5-0-2 in Baylor’s last seven neutral site games as an underdog.
  • Baylor is on a 4-0 ATS run in their last four games.
  • The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

#1 Baylor Bears vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Predictions and Picks

The game we all expected and hoped for will finally take place on Monday night when the top two teams settle the season-long debate about who is the country’s best team.

When you have two teams with only two losses between them, you’re likely to have plenty of active trends. That’s exactly what we have in this matchup. Both teams have been ATS machines in the tournament as they’ve combined to cover eight of their ten games in the NCAA Tournament.

As far as each team’s playing style is concerned, the Bulldogs want to get up and down the court in a hurry as they averaged 76 possessions per game — putting them 19th in the country. In contrast, Baylor is a bit more methodical with 71 possessions per game.

And while both teams go about their business in different ways, the result offensively remains the same as they’re the country’s two most efficient teams.

Gonzaga averages 1.204 points per possession, while Baylor is second with 1.166 points per possession. If you look at defensive efficiency, both teams are similar, with Gonzaga 15th allowing .908 points per possession while Baylor is 22nd with .92 points allowed per possession.

What’s interesting from a Baylor standpoint is in the Elite Eight, they played the Houston Cougars, the sixth-best team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency. Baylor didn’t have any issues in the game as they dominated the Cougars 78-59.

I don’t think you’ll get too many objections by stating that Baylor will be the best defensive team that Gonzaga will have played this season.

With Gonzaga’s overtime thriller against UCLA in the Final Four round, one has to wonder if the Bruins managed to reveal some vulnerability otherwise unknown about the Bulldogs. There’s no question that Gonzaga expended themselves and got pushed to their absolute limits while Baylor essentially had a worry-free game.

One thing that will be key in this game is whether Gonzaga can slow down Baylor on the perimeter. The Bears were 11th in the country with 10 three-point field goals per game. It’s not often that you go into a game with the concern that it’s Gonzaga that has to be worried about slowing down the opposition.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this game comes down to the last few possessions, and that’s where taking the 4.5 points will provide the most value.

The Pick: Baylor +4.5