UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Event Info

Date: Saturday, June 5

Time: 7:00 PM ET (Main Card) 4:00 PM ET (Prelims)

Venue: UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada

Broadcast Coverage: ESPN+

Co-Main Event – Heavyweight Division

#11 HW – Marcin Tybura (8-5-0 UFC record) vs. #9 HW – Walt Harris (6-8-0 (1 NC) – UFC record)

Odds to Win: Tybura -172 / Harris +140

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -105, Submission +600, Points +120

Total Rounds: Over 2.5 (+102) Under 2.5 (-126)

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

When these two behemoths face-off, they’ll both be looking to win, but the fight will mean very different things to each of them. Coming off consecutive losses, one to Alexander Volkov and the other to Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris is looking to avoid what would be the only three-fight losing streak of his career. In the past, he’s been released from the UFC after multiple losses, so there’s a lot more on the line for Harris than just the win. 

Meanwhile, Marcin Tybura is looking to build upon a successful 2020 campaign with a 5th straight victory. A win for Tybura will push him further up the rankings and potentially put his name into Heavyweight contender conversations. Although Tybura comes in as a slight favorite, I think there’s a lot to unpack here.

We all know heavyweight bouts usually go one of two ways; either they end early, or both guys gas, and the fight slows to a crawl until its eventual conclusion. 

Taking a look at Tybura’s last few fights, he tends to change his stance a lot and does eat his fair share of right hands (and we’ve seen him dropped by these in the past). However, when he’s in trouble, he’s not afraid to grab a leg and look for a takedown. Tybura has shown a tendency to move to full mount or back control and has a pretty decent half guard game on the ground. Neither fighter is exceptionally crisp on the feet, but Harris looks to be the faster of the two and the busier. Harris is also a southpaw, which usually gives a fighter a slight advantage. In addition to this, Harris won’t be dealing with the same kind of size and reach differential he had to with both Volkov and Overeem. 

Now that all of that is established, how can we maximize our payouts?

A bet on Harris by KO/TKO comes in at +310 on the moneyline, but I think we can take it one step further and put Harris down for a first-round KO/TKO, which increases our payout to +650. Taking Harris by early-round stoppage is probably our best bet at capitalizing on the odds, but if we want to hedge our bets, we’ll probably have to look at making an in-fight play on the decision. If that early round isn’t turning out to be a slugfest we’re all looking for, then we should hedge on a decision in favor of the fighter we see as winning that first round. Both fighters have pretty good gas tanks for Heavyweights, and Tybura can take a punch, so this one could just as easily last the full 15 minutes. However, Harris should get off the shots he wants, and more than likely have a higher output volume. The best bet is either Harris knocking out Tybura or overwhelming him early.

The Bets: Harris win +140, Under 2.5 Rounds (-126), Harris KO/TKO in the first round (+650), Harris by KO/TKO (+310), Fight Ends in KO/TKO (-105)