Will Baylor vs. Houston be a Low-Scoring Defensive Affair?

So here we are with Baylor and Houston in the Final Four. Many people thought the Bears and Gonzaga were on a collision course all year because they were supposed to play already, but the game was wiped out because of a COVID situation with Baylor. Now the Cougars are the only thing that stands in the way of that happening, on at least one side of the equation.

There’s no reason to completely write off Houston just yet, but they are kind of a three-man team. They play that three-guard game with Quentin Grimes, Dejon Jarreau, and Marcus Sasser, and they play with a ton of heart and effort. But that being said, Baylor does all the same things Houston does, except they do it better and faster. The Bears hit more threes; they’re higher scoring and are just an all-around better squad. The one big concern with the Bears is their free-throw shooting, as if it comes down to foul shots, a problem could occur for Baylor.

Right now, the spread at the FanDuel Sportsbook sits with Baylor as -5 point favorites, so you have to ask yourself, is five points really that much? The Cougars have been very good underdogs with Kelvin Sampson at the helm. Houston is 11-2 in their past 13 games where they were catching points. Five points could be a mountain in a game like this. Where do the points come from? It doesn’t look like a high-scoring affair in this one because you have to ask, can either team push the pace? No. Can either team pound the glass? No.  Can either team shoot a high percentage against their opponent? No. If this game gets over the total, it’s a foul fest, which could favor Houston to cover. But it certainly feels more like a low-scoring defensive scrum of a game, so the under is worth looking into.